In the aftermath of Pakistan’s loss to India in the Asia Cup recently it makes sense to look at the apparent change in tide.
The Pakistan-India rivalry in ODI cricket can be defined in popular perception by two watershed moments: Miandad’s six and Tendulkar’s uppercut. Before Miandad’s Sharjah heroics, India were the dominant team in Asia; his six changed that. The roles were reversed following the 2003 World Cup, as India beat Pakistan because Tendulkar failed to score a century.
The context of Miandad’s innings is important to remember. India had won the World Cup in 1983, and followed it up with the World Championship in 1985 (a tournament which included all Test playing nations), during the course of which they won both the matches played against Pakistan. Just twelve days after winning that tournament they defended a score of 125 against their great rivals, on a Friday in Sharjah of all places. These were the three (1st of the four ODIs played between the two nations prior to that match in1986. It was with this as background in which Miandad scored a match-winning hundred which included the six of the last ball of the over.
Yet it would be churlish to think that one
innings, or shot, changed the pattern of this rivalry. Pakistan really weren’t
that far behind India; they had beaten them in their previous encounters in
November 1985. The overall record prior to April 18th 1986 was 7 wins and 8
losses for Pakistan. From then till Tendulkar’s uppercut it read 44-21. What
changed the course of the war were a series of battles. In the two matches
following Miandad’s classic, Pakistan would chase down India’s totals with
lower-order partnerships, winning both matches (Sharjah, Indore) by just three wickets. The coup de grace was to follow, though. In front of a
packed Eden Gardens, Salim Malik came in with Pakistan five-down, and needing 78
to win at over 10-an-over. He would go on to score an oft-forgotten epic: 72 off
36 balls to deliver Pakistan victory with three balls to spare. Yes, he scored
SEVENTY-TWO of the 78 runs required. This included a
50-run partnership with Wasim Akram, in which the left-armer scored three of
three balls! This match gave Pakistan a 2-0 lead in the ODI series.
These were the battles which turned the tide. Four consecutive tight chases won by Pakistan – oh, what we’d give for even one now – culminating in a 5-1 series victory in India (the first time either side had won an away bilateral series). A month later Pakistan would win its first Test series victory in India (and India’s only home series loss between 1985 and 2000), and the mental block was well and truly in place.
Tendulkar’s innings stopped the rot, but despite claims to the contrary hasn’t turned the tide in India’s favour. Since the encounter in the 2003 World Cup Pakistan has won 17 and lost 18 of the matches played. This, when not seen in isolation, is interesting reading. Pakistan’s overall win-loss ratio between Miandad and Tendulkar’s shots was 1.08; India’s equivalent was 0.80. Since the 2003 meeting Pakistan’s ratio stands at 0.90 while India’s is 1.19 (all records with Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and other minnows excluded).
The reason for the change in patterns is simple: India post-2003 is a better side than Pakistan, just as Pakistan were the better side before the tournament in South Africa. So, as much as it may come as a surprise, Pakistan, both pre and post 2003, have performed better against India than other sides; and/or India have underperformed against Pakistan.
In the first decade of this century, Pakistan and
India reached an equilibrium where India’s batting resources could be challenged
by Pakistan’s bowlers – usually Shoaib Akhtar, and in one glorious spring, Rana Naved – allowing Pakistan’s
lesser batting to fight on equal footing. Now that India are refusing to make
the mistakes that Pakistan made following the 2003 World Cup, i.e. allowing
their youngsters to be developed alongside their legends, and Pakistan are
bereft of the talents of the level of Mohammad Yousuf and Inzamam, suddenly the
tide seems to be turning in India’s favour. This is evidenced by their victories
in the last three matches between the two sides (the common factor in all three
being the failure of Pakistan’s pacers to take wickets with the new ball).
If this streak is to be their equivalent of 1986-87, then we shall talk for years of how the blitz of an Indian great changed the perception and psychology of the rivalry.
Yes, Harbhajan Singh is going to be India’s Javed Miandad.
